Workshop on ‘Operational Environment 2045’ – Strategic Foresight Held in Madrid

• The environment in which the Armed Forces are likely to operate in 20 years has been analysed

The Analysis and Foresight Section of the Force Development Division of the Joint Staff organised a workshop for young people under 35 on the ‘Operational Environment 2045’ at the Higher Centre for National Defence Studies (CESEDEN).

The event gathered 50 participants, both military and civilian, experts in various fields of knowledge, to analyse the environment in which the Armed Forces are expected to operate over the next 20 years, from the perspective of those who will be the future leaders and who will live and manage the future.

The meeting served as the starting point for a series of study and research initiatives aimed at extracting reflections, thoughts, and ideas to soon draft the document ‘Operational Environment 2045’, which will review the content of the current ‘Operational Environment 2035 1st Revision’ published in 2022, in light of strategic changes and new trends in the international landscape since its publication.

The purpose of the upcoming ‘Operational Environment 2045’, like its predecessor, is to reflect on the characteristics of possible operational scenarios and contexts for the Armed Forces, as well as the changes they will need to face in order to successfully adapt to that environment. The document will provide a rigorous starting point that will inspire the development of military planning to shape effective future Armed Forces that will continue to fulfil their mission properly.

Over the course of the two-day workshop, and drawing on various preparatory documents and tailored presentations, participants took part in structured group discussions centred on six key thematic areas: the international order; challenges, risks, and threats; state and non-state actors; the future battlefield and its domains; military capabilities, with a particular emphasis on innovative, emerging, and disruptive technologies; and the nature of future conflicts.